COLUMBIA, S.C. — MUSC leadership said they expect South Carolina’s COVID-19 cases to peak later this month or early next month.
On a video conference call with reporters Wednesday, MUSC President Dr. David Cole said the state should start planning now on how to reopen the economy.
“Best thoughts on the perimeters that would allow a green light on relaxing the current social distancing restrictions are, as follows. One South Carolina hospital systems have the assets and capacity to treat patients moving forward, with adequate staff, beds, ventilators, and PPE. And two, the incidents of new COVID-19 infections needs to be and remain low. If current models hold true, these conditions will likely exist in approximately 4 to 6 weeks,” Cole said.
Dr. Cole and other MUSC staff showed its data saying the cases in South Carolina could peak in late April or earlier May. MUSC Charleston projected it’s peak to be sometime between April 22 and May 22.
MUSC CEO Dr. Patrick Cawley said in the meantime they're focused on attaining rapid tests for the disease and then developing immunity testing.
“Think about it, if you were known to be immune to COVID-19 and we understood all the depths of what that meant, we might be able to get you back to work earlier and healthcare, health systems, we might be able to put the right people on the front-line of dealing with COVID-19,” Cawley said on the call.
Dr. Cawley said the hospital system was purchasing the tests and working to develop its own, with the hope to test healthcare staff to see who might be immune.
MUSC is also working with DHEC to create detailed contact tracing, including using technology, as the state moves forward with containment efforts after the first wave, according to Cawley.
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On the call, doctors detailed how MUSC has its own team performing analytics and projections based on available data. While presenting their research, Dr. Michael Sweat said current measures are helping, but warned against ending them too soon.
“There is evidence that in the past three weeks, social distancing has reduced the growth of new cases substantially. I would say we are seeing a slight digression of that occurring right now,” Sweat said.
Dr. Sweat said the state needed to stay “vigilant” to limit a potential surge of new infections or a second wave, adding social distancing guidelines and potential super spreader events would need to be monitored closely.
However, there was some good news, Dr. Sweat and Dr. Cole said according to current data, the state would not exceed the amount of available hospital beds during the expected peak.
But, when South Carolina’s economy can begin to return to a new normal, Dr. Cole said it needs to follow certain parameters to prevent a second wave.
The state should stage economic reopening based on priority and economic impact, as well as the risk to staff, have widespread testing in place, the ability to perform immunity testing, detailed contact tracing systems, and will have to continue to protect vulnerable populations through self-isolation and social distancing, according to Dr. Cole.