YORK, S.C. — Voters across South Carolina cast their ballots in the state's Republican presidential primary election on Saturday for either Donald Trump or Nikki Haley. The Associated Press quickly projected Trump as the winner, just a minute after polls closed.
Trump has now swept every contest that counted for Republican delegates, with wins already in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The former president’s latest victory will likely increase pressure on Haley, who was Trump’s former representative to the U.N. and South Carolina governor from 2011 to 2017, to leave the race.
However, during a speech Saturday evening in Charleston, Haley vowed to remain in the race.
"I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president," she said to cheers from supporters. "I'm a woman of my word."
With so many eyes and attention on the results from the election, which could help determine the fate of Haley's ongoing campaign, WCNC Charlotte asked voters why it was so important for them to cast their ballot.
"Our country is in disarray so I think it’s important to vote," Lynn Carney said as she voted early Saturday morning.
Adrian Carnes, who is just 19 years old, shared why casting a ballot is critical for his generation.
"We’re choosing our leaders and possibly our laws and everything that affects us in our day-to-day life," Carnes said.
Voters shared what helped them make their decision. Todd Curtier said, “Well we need leadership back. If you don’t vote you don’t get the things that you want. So you’ve got to vote for our leaders, put some people in place and get our country back on the right track.”
Trump and Haley stumped across South Carolina Friday on the eve of the state's Republican presidential primary.
With Thursday marking the conclusion of early voting, the candidates made a final push for anyone who intended to vote on Saturday in person.
Trump appeared Friday in both Rock Hill and Columbia. His son, Donald Trump, Jr., was campaigning for the former president in Charleston and North Charleston.
The candidates have been crisscrossing the state ahead of Saturday's primary.
Saturday’s election is critical for the former governor if she loses on her “home turf.”
Recent polling from Winthrop University showed Donald Trump with a strong lead over Haley with about 65% of support from likely GOP voters, WCNC Charlotte's Ben Thompson analyzed on this week's episode of Flashpoint, WCNC Charlotte's weekly show discussing politics.
Chase Meyer, a professor at the University of South Carolina, said Haley would need about 40% of the vote to convince donors she still has a shot of winning the nomination.
"If that doesn't happen, she might be dropping out sooner than she anticipated," Meyers speculated.
The allies of Haley, the last major Republican candidate standing in Donald Trump's path to the GOP's 2024 presidential nomination, privately braced for a blowout loss in her home state's primary election in South Carolina on Saturday. And they cannot name a state where she is likely to beat Trump in the coming weeks.
Why did the Associated Press call the race so soon?
The AP says it based its race call on an analysis of AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of Republican South Carolina primary voters. The survey confirms the findings of pre-Election Day polls showing Trump far outpacing Haley statewide.
Declaring a winner as polls close based on the results of AP’s VoteCast survey — and before election officials publicly release tabulated votes — is not unusual in heavily lopsided contests like Saturday's primary.
VoteCast results show Trump winning on a scale similar to his earlier victories in every contest so far where he appeared on the ballot. In South Carolina, he is winning by huge margins in every geographic region of the state, from Upcountry in the north to Low Country on the Atlantic coast.
The survey also shows Trump with sizable leads across the state’s political geography, winning among Republican primary voters from areas that vote heavily Republican in general elections to those that vote heavily Democratic, as well as everywhere in between. Haley’s strongest support according to VoteCast was among voters with postgraduate degrees, but they make up a small share of the overall electorate.
Haley’s likeliest path to victory relied on posting strong numbers in more Democratic-friendly areas, while staying competitive in traditionally Republican areas. In Haley’s last competitive GOP primary in the state in 2010, some of the areas where she performed best were in counties that tend to support Democrats in general elections. But VoteCast shows Haley not performing anywhere near the level she needs to pull off an upset.
Another key metric is votes cast before Election Day, which tend to be among the first votes reported of the night.
Since the issue of early voting became highly politicized in the 2020 presidential election, pre-Election Day votes have skewed Democratic, while Election Day votes have skewed Republican. With much of Haley’s support coming from more moderate voters this campaign, she would have needed a strong showing among early voters in order to withstand the votes later in the night from more conservative voters who voted on Election Day. While VoteCast showed Haley performing slightly better among early voters than she did among Election Day voters, she trailed badly behind Trump in both groups.
When all the votes are counted, Trump may come close to doubling the 33% he received in his 2016 South Carolina victory against a far more competitive six-way field. That year he carried 44 of 46 counties, all but Richland and Charleston, the state’s second- and third-most populous.
VoteCast provides a detailed snapshot of the electorate and helps explain who voted, what issues they care about, how they feel about the candidates and why they voted the way they did.
The Associated Press, WLTX, and Tegna contributed to this report
Flashpoint is a weekly in-depth look at politics in Charlotte, North Carolina, South Carolina, and beyond with host Ben Thompson. Listen to the podcast weekly.
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