The presidential election is just a few weeks away. After you vote, the electoral college representatives from each state will solidify the nomination through their own vote in December. But is it possible to tie the mere 538 votes up for grabs in the election?
It's not just possible, it's realistic, says Dr. Chase Meyer, a political science professor with the University of South Carolina.
According to 270ToWin.Com, if the 2020 electoral map stays the same, while Harris secures swing states Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Trump gets the votes for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, it would come down to the Maine and Nebraska. In these two states, electoral votes can be split, and awarded to the candidate that wins each Congressional District. If Maine stays the same, Harris would get 3 of the 4 electoral votes, with the other going to Trump. In 2020, Trump got 4 of 5 electoral votes for Nebraska, but if he flips that last seat to turn Nebraska red, we'd see a 269-269 split.
"It gets complicated and crazy really quickly," says Meyer.
He says the House would vote for the President and the Senate would vote for the Vice President. But each state gets one vote, so if a state has equal numbers of Republican and Democrats in the House, they'll likely not be able to agree on a vote and have to abstain. He says with the House close to a 25-25 split for states, it wouldn't take much to see a tie in the House too.
"To be elected president from Congress, a majority 26 states would have to vote for that candidate. So Democrats, for example, one state they're strongly contesting is Montana, where there's two congressional seats right now, both held by Republicans. If Democrats flip one of those seats, which, right now it's about a 50/50, chance, if they will, then Montana will have one Democrat, one Republican. When it comes to vote, Montana will have to abstain because they won't be able to decide, should I vote for Harris or for Trump? So Montana won't count. That would bring Republicans down to 25," said Meyer.
He says it would be immense pressure on individual members of Congress to defect and vote for the other party. We'd likely see weeks of debate and pressure to solidify a candidate.
If the House doesn't pick, the Senate's VP pick would become the President following the line of succession. But Meyer says that gets complicated as well.
"If you want the nightmare scenario, based on the projections, it's expected the Senate will be a 50/50 split, perfectly partisan down the middle, and Democrats are probably favored, maybe ever so slightly to flip that one Montana seat. If everything else kind of holds the same, then you have Republicans controlling 25 states, Democrats in the House controlling 23 and the rest being a tie between both parties" said Meyer. "All of December and January, will be a nightmare. The pressure on those individual members of Congress to defect and vote for the other party will be ridiculous. And then it becomes, then the vote for Speaker of the House, which this past year, was contentious, it could become a nightmare very, very quickly."