COLUMBIA, S.C. — As the South Carolina Republican primary approaches, new insights from social media conversations offer a glimpse into the dynamics between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley.
Researchers at the University of South Carolina's Social Media Insights Lab have been diligently analyzing the online discourse surrounding the presidential hopefuls.
"We do social listening, so we scrape online sources for relevant information depending on the conversation we're working on," says St Cyr Luttmer, the coordinator at Social Media Insights Lab.
Their research started at the beginning of last year until January 29th, reveals a notable shift in the data.
Over recent months, conversations have predominantly focused on frontrunners Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, with a significant uptick in discussions in the last few weeks.
"Both in the beginning of 2024, both of them have more positive conversations than negative conversations, and they have both have trended upward and increased since the end of last year," stated Luttmer.
The surge in discussions around Haley followed her second-place finish in the New Hampshire primaries, while Trump's conversations increased amidst indictments, showcasing steadfast support from his base.
"As much as it hurt him in the sense of people talking about his indictments, there were also people who went to support him, and stuck up for him it’s the highest positive peaks that he has this entire past year," noted Luttmer.
Interestingly, the analysis revealed that supporters of neither candidate share the same concerns about policy issues.
"This is Trump's map and immigration is his biggest cluster, which shows it’s one of the biggest issues that his conversations are surrounding," explained Luttmer. "Conversations about Israel and Hamas show significantly on hers,".
Online voices expressing their voting preferences increased for Haley in 2024, while it decreased for Trump. However, Trump still maintains a substantial lead.
"Trump has less than he had in Q4 of 2023, but it's also the beginning, but it does show there are a lot more people talking about voting for Haley now than ever before," said Luttmer.
While acknowledging that social media doesn't always represent the entire voter base, Luttmer emphasized that it reflects the prevailing sentiment among Republicans in South Carolina.
"It definitely shed some light on the fact Trump is the main contender predominantly," concluded Luttmer.
The South Carolina Republican primary is on Februrary 24th.