To understand the settled certainty at the top of the College Football Playoff rankings this week – just like the week before or any of the weeks before that – you need to know only this:
The only mention of Alabama at all came during Rob Mullens’ opening statement in a weekly teleconference with reporters.
“Alabama is No. 1," he told us – and that was the extent of the discussion.
Literally, that was the only reference. The chairman of the selection committee had nothing else to say about the Crimson Tide. No one asked about the nation’s top-ranked team. It was the same during Mullens’ weekly television appearance, too, which consisted of three questions about the actual debatable stuff.
And it makes sense. Notre Dame is in, and everyone seems to be fast-forwarding Clemson past Pittsburgh in the ACC championship. But Oklahoma vs. Ohio State will prompt plenty of shouting until this weekend when the games happen, and then perhaps more shouting after the committee makes its final decision.
But what if that’s not the most difficult question for the committee? What if Alabama loses?
There’s a growing school of thought that Alabama’s position in the playoff is set in cement, like its hold on No. 1 has been. That even if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship (we know, but go with us), the Crimson Tide is still in the four-team bracket.
But it’s not a foregone conclusion.
That might be how it would go – Always Alabama – but it would not be an easy or simple decision for the 13-member committee.
You don’t have to agree. You can think – like we do! – that Alabama is the best team in college football, and might be one of the four best teams regardless of what actually occurs on the field Saturday. You can even determine that the playoff is Alabama’s Divine Right (i.e., never mind what is actually accomplished on the field, we know they’re talented enough to win it, so they should always be in it).
All of the above is fine. The Tide is terrific – so good that it’s hard to fathom this scenario coming into play, even with Georgia currently ranked No. 4.
But heading into this final weekend, Alabama’s invitation is not already engraved.
Not if it loses and Oklahoma or Ohio State wins (or both do) – at least, not if the selection committee is paying attention to the official protocol it is charged with using to choose the “best teams.” Here’s the relevant portion:
The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
· Conference championships won
· Strength of schedule
· Head-to-head competition
· Comparative outcomes of common opponents
· Other relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.
Mullens was asked Tuesday how the committee defines “best,” and noted that it likely varies with each committee member, “but we have a very clear protocol when it comes down to that.”
And this is where, if Alabama loses in the SEC championship game and is being considered for a playoff spot along with Big 12 champion Oklahoma or Big Ten champion Ohio State (or with both), things could get dicey for the “Alabama is in, no matter what” narrative.
During the preliminary sets of rankings, the committee has compared and contrasted similar teams using those criteria. But obviously, conference championships can’t be applied until the final rankings. There’s no way to know their impact until then.
“It is the one data point that becomes available at the end of the season that’s not available during (the season),” Mullens said.
Yes, we know: There is history for teams getting into the bracket without winning a conference championship instead of teams that did.
Alabama reached the playoff last year without even playing in a conference championship game, much less winning it. Finishing second in the SEC West was good enough. (And yeah, Alabama was clearly good enough to win the national championship.)
But at 11-1, the 2017 version of Alabama was being compared to a two-loss Big Ten champion in Ohio State (and one of Ohio State’s losses was by 31 points against an average Iowa team). The selection committee didn’t see the teams as similar, and thus didn’t need to consider the conference championship.
Likewise, Ohio State got into the playoff in 2016 despite not winning the Big Ten East. It was especially galling to many that the Buckeyes were selected ahead of Big Ten champion Penn State, which had won the teams’ head-to-head meeting.
But Ohio State was 11-1. Penn State was 11-2. And what gets lost is that the actual debate in 2016 was not between Ohio State – which was the No. 3 seed – and Penn State, but between Penn State and one-loss Pac-12 champion Washington for the fourth spot.
This time around, though, the situation would be different. If Georgia beats ‘Bama and Oklahoma or Ohio State win (or both do), the comparison would be of teams with the same records: 12-1 conference champions with a 12-1 team that did not win its conference championship.
Both Oklahoma and Ohio State are flawed. The Sooners’ defensive deficiencies are well-documented, though offset by perhaps the nation’s most potent offense. The Buckeyes struggled in many games against lesser opponents before blowing out then-No. 4 Michigan last week.
Alabama, meanwhile, didn’t show many weaknesses at all. Even with a loss to Georgia, the Tide would be buoyed by a full season’s worth of impressive performances, including dominant victories against four SEC teams ranked in this week’s CFP rankings. The committee might still see Alabama as – we’re going back to the official protocol here – “unequivocally one of the four best teams,” rather than Oklahoma or Ohio State.
But while we’re talking about bodies of work and the eye test, reset for a moment: With a loss, Alabama’s aura of invincibility would, by definition, be gone. If Georgia was good enough to beat ‘Bama, why couldn’t some other playoff contender?
Would an Oklahoma or an Ohio State then be considered comparable enough that “conference championships won” would become a determining factor?
The Tide has been so good this year – which is why it's hard to fathom a loss, and why if Alabama somehow lost, it’s not difficult to envision the Tide staying in the top four.
But unlike the growing narrative, it would not be a simple, easy decision. Alabama’s in, anyway? Sorry, it’s not a foregone conclusion.
