COLUMBIA, S.C. — As Fall gets closer and closer to an end our eyes will begin to look toward our Winter months.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has put out their forecast which includes a wetter season ahead. Throw in a little bit of cold weather and these storm tracks could lead to wintry weather in the south.
The Forecast right now is calling for a wetter pattern to set up over the Southeast during the months of December, January, and February. As for temperatures, things are a bit harder to forecast with an equal chance of below and above-average temperatures this winter.
A big factor in this season will be the ongoing El Nino. We can take a look at the past to see how this influences snowfall in the region.
Since 1948 all but one El Nino winter has featured snowfall here in the Midlands. Typically, we average right around 1.5 inches of snow during these seasons, but totals can vary. We’ve picked up as little as no snow but as much as 18.2 inches during El Nino years.
El Ninos can look different, and we are likely heading into at least a strong El Nino this year. Narrowing down to other Strong and even Major El Nino years, there is not a clear trend toward more or less snow, but there is still an overall increase in the likelihood of winter weather.
One thing that we must take into account is the changing climate conditions over these past few decades. Even with a pattern that lends towards snow in the past, our rising temperatures will change how we forecast winter weather here in the Carolinas