Ernesto forecast to become a major hurricane

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Ernesto becomes the third hurricane of the season. It is forecast to become the second major hurricane of the year as it moves towards Bermuda.

Earlier today, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft detected winds strong enough for Ernesto to be classified as a hurricane. Sustained winds are now near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next few days.

Ernesto was moving northwest at about 16 mph. The storm is expected to shift to a north-northwest direction later today and then continue moving north or north-northeast over the next few days. 

This path will take Ernesto through a gap in the subtropical ridge, where it will interact with a mid-latitude trough. According to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast, Ernesto is expected to stay offshore from the U.S. and make its closest approach to Bermuda on Saturday.

Although radar data shows that Ernesto is not yet fully aligned vertically, and previous attempts to form an eye have failed due to dry air, conditions still support further strengthening. With low wind shear and the remaining dry air gradually dissipating, most forecasts suggest that Ernesto could become a major hurricane over the western Atlantic in the next few days. Both the intensity models and global weather models predict that Ernesto will develop into a large and powerful hurricane.

It is important to note that Ernesto is expected to grow significantly in size, leading to powerful waves that could reach land across the western Atlantic. Even if the storm remains offshore, beachgoers along the U.S. East Coast should be aware of the high risk of dangerous rip currents starting later this week.

Key Messages for Affected Areas

1. Tropical Storm Conditions: The Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques will continue to experience tropical storm conditions over the next several hours.
2. Heavy Rainfall: Expect heavy rainfall in the Virgin Islands and parts of Puerto Rico today, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
3. Bermuda Impacts: Ernesto is likely to affect Bermuda later this week, so residents should stay updated on the storm's progress.
4. Dangerous Swells and Rip Currents: Ernesto is expected to generate large swells that will impact the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas over the next few days. These swells will likely reach the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by the weekend, creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.