COLUMBIA, South Carolina — The Old Farmer's Almanac is a resource for many who want to plan for the weather ahead. However, the question is, how reliable is it?
The Almanac uses a "secret" formula created in 1792 that includes factors like sunspot activity, tidal patterns, and planetary alignment, among others.
While the Almanac claims to be accurate, it has received criticism. Some meteorologists argue that the formula is not based on scientific data. Additionally, the Almanac's predictions cover broad regions and may not be precise for a particular location.
Despite the skepticism, the Almanac does have a track record of making accurate predictions claiming to be 80% accurate. For example, it correctly forecasted the unusually cold and snowy winter of 2013-2014.
However, it has also had its share of misses. According to a University of Illinois study, the Almanac is only 52% accurate, which is basically a random process. Most forecast models used by meteorologists cannot go beyond two weeks because predicting weather past that point is nearly impossible.
The Old Farmer's Almanac is a fun resource, but it should not be relied upon for detailed, accurate weather predictions.