COLUMBIA, S.C. — Most of the last 10 years have seen above-average tropical activity. While the official start to hurricane season is a few months away the first predictions are already being released for 2023.
Since 2016, all but one hurricane season has been active. In 2022 we saw 8 hurricanes including Category 4 Ian which made landfall in Florida and South Carolina. With hurricane season beginning in about 2 months, Colorado State University has put out its first forecast for this season. The 13 predicted named storms and 6 hurricanes are slightly below average.
A big reason we could see reduced tropical activity this year is the arrival of the global weather pattern EL Nino. This pattern increases wind shear which can tear storms apart while they try to form in the Atlantic. Even with this pattern in place, there is still some concern that the ocean waters are already running well above average.
Over the last 3 decades, we have continued to see increasing sea surface temperatures, a symptom of climate change. Warmer waters provide fuel for these storms which have led to the trend of rapidly intensifying storms we have seen over the past decade.
This is also reflected in the increased activity overall. Since 1990, we have seen an increase of almost 2 hurricanes each season and about 1 more major hurricane every year.
Hurricane Season begins on June 1st but as we have seen recently we can get named storms earlier although, waters are not warm enough for strong systems this early in the year.