COLUMBIA, S.C. — Tropical Storm Ernesto appears to be getting a little better organized. It is the fifth named storm of the season. It is forecast to become the third hurricane of the year.
Ernesto's wind speeds are holding steady at about 40 mph with some strong gusts. The storm is moving towards the west at 20 mph. It has been slowing down, and it is forecast to slow down even more.
This path will likely bring the storm's center near or over the Leeward Islands today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by tonight and early Wednesday. After moving through these areas, Ernesto will turn north and then northeast, as the subtropical ridge and an approaching weather system from the United States influence its path.
As we look further into the week, the trough is expected to move away from Ernesto, leading to another slowdown in the storm's forward speed. The forecast track is aligned with various consensus models and remains consistent with previous predictions.
Ernesto is expected to remain in an environment with light to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, both of which are conducive to strengthening. However, due to its current lack of organization, any intensification will likely be slow over the next 12–24 hours. After this, Ernesto is expected to strengthen more quickly, potentially reaching hurricane status within the next 36–48 hours.
Key Messages and Warnings
- Tropical Storm Conditions: Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to parts of the Leeward Islands today, with the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico experiencing these conditions by late today or tonight. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for all these areas.
- Heavy Rainfall: The storm could produce heavy rainfall, leading to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the Leeward Islands today and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from later today through Wednesday.
- Potential Impacts on Bermuda: While it is still too early to determine the exact impact Ernesto may have on Bermuda later this week, residents should stay informed and monitor the storm's progress.
The 2024 hurricane season has been quite active, with five named storms already recorded, and two hurricanes.
Last week, forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated the number of expected named storms to 17–24, of which 8–13 could become hurricanes, including 4–7 major hurricanes.