COLUMBIA, S.C. — Tropical activity is beginning to ramp up. We have not had a named storm yet, but that may change this week. Here is the latest update on two potential systems that could impact various regions in the South.
Bay of Campeche: Growing Concern
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and it is likely that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form by the middle of the week as the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to impact parts of southern Mexico and Central America over the next few days. These rains could lead to life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Additionally, the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico may experience locally heavy rainfall by midweek.
Formation chances:
- Next 48 hours: High (70%)
- Next 7 days: High (70%)
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Residents along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor for any updates.
Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: Another System on the Horizon
Another area of cloudiness and thunderstorms is located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas. This system is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some development as the system moves westward or west-northwestward over the next few days.
This system is expected to approach the southeast coast of the United States by Thursday or Friday, potentially bringing unsettled weather to the region.
Formation chances:
- Next 48 hours: Low (10%)
- Next 7 days: Low (30%)
Current Forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be active, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting a slightly above-average season. This forecast includes:
- 12-17 named storms
- 5-9 hurricanes
- 2-4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)