COLUMBIA, S.C. — Today and Wednesday could bring showers and thunderstorms, with some storms possibly becoming severe. Weak high pressure will provide a brief break from the unsettled weather on Thursday. However, rain and storms are expected to return late this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will gradually rise over the next seven days.
This morning's analysis shows a closed upper low over Missouri with southwesterly flow from the Gulf Coast to the southeastern states. The surface weather map indicates an old frontal boundary located south of the forecast area, stretching across southern Georgia into the Florida Panhandle.
The upper low is expected to weaken and move east into the Mississippi Valley today. The widespread morning showers should lift north by late morning, with lower chances of precipitation from south to north into the early afternoon.
Extensive cloud cover will persist throughout the day. As a weak surface low moves into the Tennessee Valley, winds will shift to the south/southwest, leading to warmer temperatures. Highs will range from the mid-70s in the northern and western Midlands to around 80 in the southeastern Midlands.
The atmosphere is expected to destabilize this afternoon, with sufficient wind shear to support scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms. High-resolution models indicate a break in morning rainfall, with isolated to scattered storms developing late afternoon into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has the area at a marginal risk for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. Any lingering storms should wane after midnight, with isolated showers across the northern Midlands. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid-60s.
On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will bring a cold front through the area, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The day will start dry, with low-level stratus lifting to allow for some destabilization by the afternoon. The SPC has placed the area under a marginal risk for severe weather, with damaging winds and hail as the primary threats. Daytime highs will be near normal, and any evening storms should dissipate or move out of the area. Overnight temperatures will be near or slightly above normal.
Thursday will see high-pressure overhead, providing a brief break in the unsettled weather. Expect sunny to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Clouds will increase overnight as the next storm system approaches, but we should remain dry until Friday morning. Overnight temperatures will remain above normal.
The extended forecast remains unsettled and uncertain. Models are split on Friday's rain chances, so the forecast includes a slight-to-chance category for precipitation throughout the period. While isolated or scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, the severe risk is uncertain and will need to be monitored. Temperatures will be near to above normal.