COLUMBIA, S.C. — Wednesday will be another cloudy and mild day across South Carolina, but mother nature will settle the score overnight into Thursday with severe weather during the afternoon and evening and the chance for rounds of heavy rain.
The latest forecast from the Storm Prediction Center increased the likelihood of a severe weather outbreak for our area.
In advance of the storm, a flash flood watch has been issued for the Midlands beginning Thursday and lasting until 1 a.m. Friday morning.
Threat
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed the entire Midlands under an enhanced risk for severe weather (a level 3 out of 5) on Thursday. The primary severe weather threat is heavy rain and damaging wind. There is a lower risk for an isolated tornado, but it cannot be ruled out.
The biggest rainfall totals will set up over upstate South Carolina where more than 3 inches of rain is expected. The heavy downpours will also move into the Midlands, where 1 to 3 inches is expected (and locally higher amounts are possible).
Timing
While there is high confidence that there will be heavy downpours tomorrow, there is lower confidence on the exact timing on the severe weather potential. The general times to watch will be Thursday morning and the late afternoon through overnight.
Periods of heavy rain will set up over the midlands overnight on Wednesday morning in our western counties. Some thunderstorms may develop with warm temperatures, well into the 60s, for the morning commute. The rain will be heavier and more widespread to our west and north, but a storm is possible anywhere in the midlands early.
Models are in agreement on a break in the activity during the late morning and afternoon. Stiff southerly breezes will bring temperatures into the mid and even upper 70s across the Midlands so it will feel quite warm and muggy.
A line of storms will slowly push into the western Midlands during the afternoon and evening. Confidence is low in the exact timing, but storms may begin to develop ahead of the cold front as early as 3 pm in Newberry, Saluda, and Fairfield county. Widespread heavy rain is expected for parts of the evening commute with embedded strong storms bringing damaging winds that could create power outages and downed trees during the later part of the day.
The severe weather threat will end when the line of storms passes through our area which will be in the late evening or early overnight. Showers will persist into early Friday morning coming to an end by mid Friday morning. Sunshine will return on Friday and temperatures will drop into the 50s by Friday afternoon.