COLUMBIA, S.C. — Tropical Depression SIX has formed in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Hilary is threatening the West Coast. A lot will be going on this week as the Hurricane Season becomes much more active.
Starting with the overall outlook in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is watching four areas of development in the Atlantic Basin. The first is a tropical wave set to move into the Gulf of Mexico next week. This will likely stay weaker but could organize enough to bring beneficial rain to the southern portions of Texas. The rest of the tropical waves, including newly formed Tropical Depression SIX, will be battling shear in the Atlantic and must be monitored as model trends continue to be somewhat uncertain with development.
What is more certain is that even if anything forms in the Atlantic, the near-term weather pattern looks unfavorable for East Coast impacts. A very large ridge of high pressure will bring 100s this week to a good portion of the South but will also act as a barrier keeping away any short-term tropical activity.
Moving on to the West Coast, portions of Coastal California are currently under a tropical storm warning as Hurricane Hilary moves northward. It reached a peak category four strength but is weakening as it moves into much colder waters. Even with this trend, major inland flooding will be a concern. This will especially be the case for desert regions. Currently, 2-6+ inches of rain will be possible over the next few days. This might not seem like a lot, but for many places in this region, that amounts to a year's worth of rain in a few days. The Weather Prediction Center has indicated the regions at most risk by issuing a high excessive rainfall outlook, including California and Nevada.
