COLUMBIA, S.C. — High pressure will dominate our region through early Thursday, bringing fair and dry conditions along with warming temperatures. However, a frontal boundary is expected to approach Thursday night into Friday, leading to potential showers and thunderstorms from Friday through the Memorial Day weekend.
Expect fair weather today due to high pressure both at the surface and aloft. Drier air moving aloft will keep conditions dry. Skies will be mostly clear with a few cumulus clouds, and highs will be around the mid-80s, which is typical for this time of year. Tonight, the lows will be in the low 60s, similar to this morning.
An upper-level ridge will be along the I-95 corridor on Wednesday morning before moving eastward as an upper-level trough approaches the western Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will continue to control the weather, with weak southerly flow beginning to return moisture to the area. Wednesday will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s.
On Thursday, the upper trough will flatten the ridge as a weak surface cold front approaches. While models suggest the front will stall north of the area, increased southerly flow will raise moisture levels. Despite this, the lack of a strong trigger for storms means that significant rain is unlikely. Highs on Thursday will reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s due to increasing clouds.
The frontal boundary is expected to remain north of the area on Friday, with weak upper-level ridging trying to return to the eastern US. The front will likely be along the Virginia/North Carolina border and stretching westward along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Moisture will continue to increase, leading to chances of showers and thunderstorms from Friday through Sunday, particularly in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee regions.
On Sunday night and Monday, there is a potential for low pressure to develop in eastern Oklahoma and move toward the Ohio Valley, pushing a cold front and upper-level trough through our area. This could increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Highs throughout the period will be slightly above normal, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.